Forecast Analyst

Company Description Join our vertically integrated team at MAT Holdings, Inc., a leading global manufacturer with a 40-year history. We're proud to provide employment opportunities for more than 14,000 employees across 12 countries. Headquartered in Long Grove, Illinois, we have over 40 factories on three continents, including 2.1 million square feet of U.S. distribution and manufacturing space. You will find our products in home improvement centers, big box retailers, hardware stores and automotive chains. They're in the cars you drive, the trailers you tow, and the heavy-duty machinery you operate. MAT can maintain consistent expertise and solutions across the entire supply chain. We’re experts in engineering, manufacturing, quality assurance, logistics and distribution, marketing, design, and customer service — we don't just make it happen, we ensure it happens with excellence. We’re more than manufacturing, we’re MAT. Benefits: MAT Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries offer a complete benefits package that includes medical, dental, vision, and disability insurance after 60 days of employment. Paid Time Off (PTO), including paid vacation, sick days, and paid holidays. 401k Retirement Plan + Company Match. Career Advancement Program, training and development. Wellness Programs, including fitness reimbursements and mental health support. Health Savings Account (HSA) and Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA). Voluntary Life / AD&D, Employer Provided Life/AD&D and More... Job Description The Forecast Analyst builds and maintains time series forecasting models, owns forecast accuracy, and translates demand insights into inventory and safety stock decisions. Working with Demand planning, Supply Chain, and customers, the role combines statistical modeling, SAP and Power BI analytics, and AI tools such as Claude to deliver reliable forecasts, protect fill rates, and communicate clearly with stakeholders. Forecast Modeling Develop, test, and deploy time series forecasting models (e.g., Holt-Winter’s, ARIMA, Croston, and machine learning approaches) to predict demand at SKU, customer, and distribution center levels. Research and prototype new forecasting methods, including demand segmentation and model-routing frameworks that match each SKU's demand pattern to the best-fit model. Perform feature engineering and incorporate external drivers such as promotions, seasonality, POS trends, and new product introductions into forecast models. Validate model performance through back testing and holdout analysis before production rollout. Forecast Accuracy & Performance Management Own and monitor forecast accuracy KPIs, including MAPE, WMAPE, bias, and forecast value add (FVA), and report on them regularly. Conduct root cause analysis on forecast misses, backorders, and fill rate gaps, and implement corrective actions. Maintain forecast hygiene by cleansing demand history, handling outliers, and adjusting for supply-constrained periods. Continuously improve forecasting processes and reduce manual overrides through better statistical baselines. Operations & Supply Chain Collaboration Work closely with Operations and Supply Chain teams to translate demand forecasts into inventory, replenishment, and safety stock requirements. Support S&OP by preparing demand plans, highlighting risks and opportunities, and driving consensus across functions. Build and maintain safety stock models that account for demand variability, lead time variability, and target service levels. Analyze lead time variability, inventory positions, and service levels to support fill rate and inventory targets. Customer & Stakeholder Communication Collaborate with key customer accounts to review POS data, order trends, and forecast alignment, and recommend forecast changes. Communicate forecast assumptions, changes, and risks clearly to Sales, Marketing, Finance, and Operations. Gather market intelligence from Sales and Marketing to enrich forecasts with q…

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